GERS JUST HAVE THE EDGE
It's been twelve weeks since Rangers thumped Dundee United at Tannadice to prevent Celtic making it four SPL titles in a row.
Inverness said goodbye to the top-flight following a last day defeat at home to Falkirk while Hearts took third place following an impressive season under Csaba Laszlo.
Aberdeen claimed the second Europa League place while Motherwell won a place in Europe via the fair play system.
But since then, five teams have changed managers and a host of players have left for England, with the farce over the TV deal playing a big part in that.
Just how many teams can head into the new campaign believing they are stronger than last term is debatable and attempting to predict the major issues - title winners, third place and relegation - is extremely difficult at this stage.
Last term as I wrote my preview I was utterly convinced I knew where the title was heading, who would win the 'best of the rest' tag and who would be going down but this time it's a real struggle.
But nevertheless, I'll give it a go!
To the title then. Since that 3-0 win at Tannadice, Rangers have trimmed their first-team squad, shipping out a number of high earners but crucially they haven't strengthened - when was the last time Rangers headed into the new season with no summer signings at all?
Over the other side of Glasgow, Celtic will have a new manager, a new style of play and a host of new players.
And with still over two weeks to go until the transfer deadline, trying to pick a winner at this stage is really difficult.
You could argue Rangers have stability and a squad who have now experienced what it takes to win the title while Celtic are a side going through a period of change, have lost experience in Jan Vennegoor of Hesselink and Paul Hartley among others and have an unproven manager.
On the other hand, you could say Rangers have failed to build on a side that won the title only on the last day against a poor Celtic, who now have a new attacking style of play, and an added freshness they badly needed.
Under Tony Mowbray, Celtic showed how impressive they can be on their day with a fine 2-0 Champions League victory over Dinamo Moscow - a rare away succes in Europe - but Rangers have looked the part in pre-season too, their new attacking formation picking up wins against Nurnberg, Paris St Germain and Manchester City.
This is the first time for a number of years I've been unable to pick a winner at this stage - for me it is genuinely 50-50.
Barry Ferguson's departure from Rangers could bring the best out of the likes of Steven Davis while having Kevin Thomson back from serious injury is a major boost.
Added to that, Steven Naismith has been in fine form in pre-season following injuries of his own, and having those two back and on form is a major boost for Rangers.
Purely on the basis of that win in Moscow, Celtic will take some beating, but with a new manager in Mowbray who is attempting to change the whole philosophy at the club, the Hoops may suffer a few hiccups throughout the season.
The only way to split the two is to look at the odds and William Hill's 11/10 about Rangers is surely too big.
They are the only bookie offering odds-against on either side and that's where I'd be putting my money.
The big question mark over Rangers' chances is of course the January transfer window.
Last January Smith very nearly lost Kris Boyd after the club accepted an offer from Birmingham. Rangers simply would not have won the league without his goals and it's a concern they may be forced to sell a key player due to their financial troubles.
But it would be unwise to speculate too much over what may happen four months down the line and at the moment, Hills' odds-against look too good to turn down, although I would not be rushing to back Rangers with my own cash.
The race for third place - for me also between two teams - is also very close to call.
Hearts are the bookies' favourites to retain third place and it's clear to see why.
They finished last season six points ahead of nearest challengers Aberdeen and Dundee United and despite losing Robbie Neilsen, Christos Karapidis and Bruno Aguiar, they do appear to have recruited pretty well.
Ian Black will be a solid addition from Inverness while winger Suso Santana has been very impressive in pre-season.
Ismael Bouzid looksa strong, imposing centre-half but despite bringing in David Witteveen from Red Bull Salzburg, they remain light up front.
Perhaps not in terms of numbers with Christian Nade, Calum Elliot and Gary Glen, added to the signing of Witteveen, but to say none of them are prolific scorers is perhaps being a bit kind.
If, and it's a big if, they can bring in a decent goalscorer - one who would guarantee them 10-15 goals - between now and the end of August, I would back them to finish third again.
But without that, I would not be touching a skinny-looking 7/4, so I have to pick Dundee Utd to edge them out.
They did not lose any of their eight pre-season games and signed off with an impressive 2-0 win over Blackburn, although as Craig Levein has pointed out, they were very impressive heading into last season and were bottom of the table after five games.
This season though, they have the chance to get off to a flyer with four of their first six games against sides from last season's bottom six.
And having Scott Robertson back from injury is a huge boost. He made his Scotland debut against Argentina in November but played just once since January following a groin problem.
Losing Robertson and Willo Flood, who joined Celtic, from their midfield played a huge part in Levein's men only managing to finish fifth.
Like Hearts, you worry where their goals are going to come from with Francisco Sandaza out until September and uncertainty over when new signing Damian Casalinuovo will be return to fitness.
But when they get everyone fit (including Andy Webster) and goalkeeper Dusan Pernis joins in January, they have a formidable-looking side.
Like Rangers though, the worry is the January transfer window. They lost Flood last year and Barry Robson the season before.
If Margaro Gomis enjoys another decent campaign, United may be inundated with offers - but just as with Rangers, it's no good speculating over what might happen months down the line.
If they can improve on their home form from last term, the general 11/4 on offer will look excellent value.
The bookies reckon Aberdeen are in with a shout of finishing third but I reckon they will finish a few points behind both United and Hearts.
Mark McGhee has a tough job on his hands as was shown in their recent European humiliation and Dons fans may be reappraising the job Jimmy Calderwood did at Pittodrie shortly.
McGhee enjoyed one very good and one very average season at Motherwell so the jury is still very much out on him at Aberdeen, although he will be given plenty of time given he is a Dons playing legend.
The manager is still looking to bring in new faces but at the time of writing they look short in several areas.
Hibs and Motherwell both have new managers at the helm in John Hughes and Jim Gannon and it looks like 2009-10 will go down as a transitional season for both sides.
Like Mowbray at Celtic, Hughes and Gannon are looking to change the whole ethos of their respective clubs with an emphasis on youth.
Steven Fletcher and Rob Jones have left Hibs while David Clarkson, Stephen Hughes and Paul Quinn among others have departed Fir Park, leaving both sides with an uphill task to repeat last season's performances.
Hughes and Gannon should have a positive long-term effect but as for this season, they are likely to be battling each other for the final place in the top six.
You could make a case for the rest to down, it really is that tight at the bottom.
But I fancy new boys St Johnstone, St Mirren and Kilmarnock all to survive, leaving Falkirk and Hamilton facing a relegation scrap.
Not since St Mirren in 2001 have the promoted side gone straight back down and I reckon St Johnstone will continue that trend.
In Derek McInnes they have a manager on the up and have plenty of experience in the likes of Alan Main, Paul Sheerin and Jody Morris.
They have bought well this summer, Filipe Morais and Danny Grainger in particular, and although they will struggle, they should have enough about them to survive.
The same can be said about St Mirren and Kilmarnock.
Buddies boss Gus MacPherson moved quickly to try to address the club's goalscoring problem by signing Michael Higdon from Falkirk and although he is hardly a prolific goalscorer, alongside Billy Mehmet and Craig Dargo, his presence will cause teams problems.
Theysurvived only on the last day of the season thanks to a horror run of two wins in 18 league games while they've yet to win in the SPL at the new St Mirren Park.
But they defeated Motherwell and Celtic there in the Scottish Cup so they won't be hugely worried by that.
Kilmarnock looked like they were heading down until they brought in Kevin Kyle on a free transfer, his goals almost single-handedly keeping them in the SPL.
Killie, like many others, have been severely hit by the collapse of the Setanta TV deal and have struggled to bring players in, but Mark Burchill knows all about the SPL and could be a decent partner up front for Kyle.
And with the likes of Mehdi Taoul and Craig Bryson in midfield, Killie should really be aiming for a top-six spot.
That leaves Falkirk and Hamilton.
This was another tough call, but with the players they have lost this summer, the Accies look like the ones who could drop this season.
Falkirk will struggle too having lost manager John Hughes to Hibs and new boss Eddie May has a tough task in matching Yogi's achievements.
Higdon, Steve Lovell, Kevin McBride and Patrick Cregg have all left the Falkirk Stadium but they've managed to keep hold of Darren Barr and Scott Arfield for now while Ryan Flynn looked lively on the wing in Europe.
Alex MacDonald, brought in on loan from Burnley, looks a top prospect based on his Scotland Under-19 performances and Clarets boss Owen Coyle rates the forward highly while Danijel Marceta, also on loan from Partizan Belgrade, has looked good in pre-season.
The Bairns underachieved in the league last season, so they should be hopeful of improving on last term's final day survival.
Hamilton enjoyed a very impressive first season in the SPL, but it came at a cost - they lost James McCarthy and Brian Easton to the Premier League.
They still have James McArthur for now - if they were to lose him they'd be in big trouble - and have brought in experience in Marvin Andrews, although it remains to be seen if he is still up to playing at the top level.
Izzy Iriekpen looks a decent signing but given some of his comment it's unlikely he will be hanging around for long.
Accies' success was very much built on homegrown players last season and the likes of David Louhoungou, Marco Paixao and Flavio Paixao will have to settle quickly in Lanarkshire.
Tomas Cerny is arguably the best goalkeeper in the SPL but for me, Billy Reid's side are short in too many areas and the 4/1 on them to return to the First Division looks good value.
To the top goalscorer market now and seeing Kris Boyd at 15/8 makes it all the more remarkable that we managed to back him at 9/1 last season!
If he stays at Ibrox and plays 25-30 games, he is almost guaranteed to score around 20 goals, if not more. If he does so he will finish top scorer by some distance so we're looking for each-way value here.
And at 33/1, Derek Riordan looks just that.
The Hibs striker returned to Easter Road from Celtic on the final day of the summer transfer deadline last season and finished as the club's top scorer on 12 goals.
That left him fifth behind Boyd, Scott McDonald, Georgios Samaras and David Clarkson in the scoring stakes, but we have to remember Riordan missed the first four games for and was also at the disadvantage of having to settle in to a new side.
15 goals or more has traditionally been enough to make the top three and cover the each-way terms and with Steven Fletcher gone, the onus will be on Riordan to produce more.
He is likely to continue to take penalties and is equally adept at scoring from free-kicks.
33/1 looks too long - despite his continued off-field problems.
